Not So Fast

Fed Chairman Ben Bernake said last week, “the prospects for a return to growth in the near term appear good.” Before making big investments in the stock market or big plans for your sales to take off, a little historical perspective might be good to consider. Here are comments from leaders the last time the U.S. faced such challenging economic turmoil (courtesy of Lance Roberts – www.streettalklive.com):

“I see nothing in the present situation that is either menacing or warrants pessimism… I have every confidence that there will be a revival of activity in the spring, and that during this coming year the country will make steady progress.” – Andrew W. Mellon, U.S. Secretary of the Treasury, December 1929

“I am convinced that through these measures we have reestablished confidence.” – Herbert Hoover, December 1929

“[1930 will be] a splendid employment year.” – U.S. Dept. of Labor, New Year’s Forecast, December 1929

“For the immediate future, at least, the outlook (stocks) is bright.” – Irving Fisher, Ph.D. in Economics, in early 1930

“…there are indications that the severest phase of the recession is over…” – Harvard Economic Society,  January 1930

“There is nothing in the situation to be disturbed about.” – Secretary of the Treasury Andrew Mellon, February 1930

“The spring of 1930 marks the end of a period of grave concern…American business is steadily coming back to a normal level of prosperity.” – Julius Barnes, head of Hoover’s National Business Survey Conference, March 1930

“While the crash only took place six months ago, I am convinced we have now passed through the worst — and with continued unity of effort we shall rapidly recover. There has been no significant bank or industrial failure. That danger, too, is safely behind us.” – President Herbert Hoover, May 1930

“Gentleman, you have come sixty days too late. The depression is over.” – President Hoover, responding to a delegation requesting a public works program to help speed the recovery, June 1930

“… the present depression has about spent its force…” – Harvard Economic Society, August 1930

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Ending the Political Madness

Over the years I’ve served on quite a few committees…and one thing they all have in common is a specific time frame of membership. Usually it’s a three-year overlapping term. That way three people cycle off each year, so you have continuity and experience balanced with fresh ideas and perspectives.

Which begs the question: Why does government operate differently?

Would we as a nation be better served by term limits? What if the president, senators and congressmen were only eligible for a single six-year term – no re-election campaigns, no lifelong politicians?

Of course, they’ll never pass that law themselves. So, here’s a modest proposal: Run a third party in upcoming elections to vote out all incumbents. All newly elected members will sign a pledge that their sole purpose is to pass the 28th Amendment: setting a one-time six-year term for all elected national officials. Upon achieving that lofty goal, each of the interim third party members will resign, and new elections will be held. I’m thinking there’s no other way to put control back in the hands of the constituents.

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